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Anthropic is targeting a $2 trillion valuation, and OpenAI is targeting $1.2 trillion. Both companies released models this week at token prices 50 percent lower.
On Polymarket, the odds that Anthropic goes public in 2026 peaked at 96 percent earlier this month and have fallen to 76 percent.
The Information reported an active debate over giving Dario, Anthropic's chief executive, super voting shares. Anthropic also announced a new wet lab in San Francisco.
How is an IPO share price set?
Underwriting banks run a roadshow in which large investors say how many shares they would buy at various prices. The banks use that demand, a process called book building, to set a price range. The final price is typically set the evening before shares begin trading. If demand is weak, the company can lower the range or postpone the offering.
How do prediction markets show probabilities?
On Polymarket, traders buy contracts that pay 1 dollar if an event happens and nothing if it does not. A contract trading at 76 cents implies the crowd puts the odds near 76 percent. Prices move as traders buy and sell on new information. Thinly traded markets can swing on a single large bet.
Why can an IPO date slip?
A company must file a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which reviews it and sends comments the company must answer. Financial statements in the filing also have a shelf life, generally going stale after 135 days. A company may wait for a calmer market, since shares priced during a sharp selloff can raise less money. Each of these can push a planned month back by weeks.
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