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Dad's logic against the NBA
His father pulled him aside and walked through the logic. Was he the best player in his district? He thought he was tied for the best. Was his district the best in the Chicago area? Was the Chicago area the best place in the world to play basketball?
Someone on track for the NBA would be a standout in a very big pond, and at the moment he was good for one district that might not even be the best in the country. The conclusion was that the NBA was definitely not going to happen.
He still jokes that his dad got to it a little early. He also jokes that a friend who is now general manager of the Warriors might put him on a ten-day contract, since he doesn't have to play and could just be on the squad.
How likely is a player to reach the NBA?
NCAA estimates put the chance of a high school basketball player eventually being drafted by the NBA at a few hundredths of one percent. Only a small share of high school players play in college at all, and a far smaller share of college players are drafted. The league has 30 teams, each with 15 standard roster spots.
Why does being a big fish matter?
Psychologist Herbert Marsh described the big-fish-little-pond effect, in which equally able students rate their own ability lower when surrounded by stronger peers. People judge themselves by comparison with those around them rather than against an absolute scale. Marsh first described the effect in studies published in the 1980s.
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