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The commodity argument
One side holds that this data is largely a commodity. China has no shortage of labor or PhDs, and it graduates more math and science students every year than the rest of the world combined, so it can build these data sets itself. A ban would create annoyance and friction without a decisive advantage in the AI race, and China could answer with its own bans, such as on rare earths. The limits on EUV lithography machines in the first Trump administration are the kind of control that packs a punch.
Who writes the data
The other side points to who writes the data. American PhDs and experts correct technical queries in code, biology, and science, then verify the results. Reselling those same packages to Chinese companies lets them catch up just as quickly, in a process close to distillation. Chinese models such as Kimi, Qwen, and GLM are already very good.
How much scrutiny
How much scrutiny this gets depends on the race. The sales pass muster today only while the US is leading. If the president is told the US is no longer winning, practices like this get far more attention than they do now.
Why do EUV machines make export controls effective?
ASML, a Dutch company, is the only company that has built EUV lithography machines for commercial chip production. The machines print the finest circuit patterns using light at a wavelength of 13.5 nanometers, which they produce by firing lasers at tiny droplets of molten tin. A chipmaker cannot make the most advanced chips without them, and no one else supplies a substitute. Because the machines come from one supplier, restrictions on that supplier's sales reach the whole industry.
How can export controls provoke retaliation?
A country hit by trade limits can answer with limits on materials it supplies. In July 2023, China's Commerce Ministry announced export licensing requirements for gallium and germanium, taking effect in August. Those metals are used in chips, and China produces most of the world's supply of both.
Why does dual-use technology get special rules?
Dual-use goods have both civilian and military applications, so selling them freely can strengthen an adversary's military. The Wassenaar Arrangement, established in 1996, coordinates export controls on conventional arms and dual-use goods among dozens of participating countries. Items on its control lists include advanced electronics, sensors, and materials. Participation is voluntary, and decisions are made by consensus.
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