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Minnesota Senate race is neck and neck
The candidates and the money
Flanagan has been Minnesota's lieutenant governor for the last eight years. Tafoya, a former sideline reporter for Monday Night Football and Sunday Night Football, has never held public office. Democrats have held the seat since 2009, and Flanagan had a 4% edge in the most recent poll. Republicans are facing challenges in states that are normally reliably red, so they have put their money into shoring those up instead. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stumped for Tafoya at a southern Minnesota farm about two weeks ago and was noncommittal when asked whether the Senate Leadership Fund, the committee he helps run, would give her a boost.
Trump and the campaign
Tafoya said when she announced her run that she would be honored to have Trump's endorsement, but in recent months she has tried to distance herself from him. At a rally in Ohio this week, Trump railed against members of Minnesota's Somali community he said were looting welfare programs and urged people to vote for Tafoya. At a debate Friday, she did not answer when asked whether she would campaign with him if he comes to Minnesota. Trump has said he might visit.
Fraud and immigration enforcement
About 70 people have been convicted of bilking millions of dollars from state programs in the last few years, and questions have been raised about why Governor Tim Walz's administration did not respond more quickly. Tafoya says the fraud happened on Flanagan's watch, and Flanagan says it was not under her purview. Flanagan has called for ICE to be dismantled. Tafoya called the fatal shootings of two Americans by immigration agents devastating, and she also criticized the protests against the enforcement surge.
Why was the 2008 Minnesota Senate race so close?
The 2008 race between Al Franken and the incumbent Norm Coleman was separated by only a few hundred votes out of about 2.9 million cast. It went to a statewide recount and then to the Minnesota Supreme Court. Franken was certified the winner by 312 votes and was sworn in on July 7, 2009, more than six months after the term began. That is the seat Democrats have held since.
How does the Senate Leadership Fund spend money?
The Senate Leadership Fund is a super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, and it mostly pays for television, radio, and digital ads in competitive states. Super PACs can raise unlimited sums because of the 2010 federal appeals court ruling in SpeechNow.org v. FEC, which followed the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. They are barred from coordinating directly with candidates. Their spending is reported to the Federal Election Commission on a regular schedule.
Why do outside groups skip some close races?
Outside groups have a fixed pot of money and must decide where an extra dollar is most likely to change the outcome. A race that polls close but sits in an expensive media market, or one where a rival seat looks easier to defend, can lose out. Federal law also gives candidates the lowest unit rate on television ads in the weeks before an election, so campaign money buys more airtime than outside group money does.
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