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Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2 percent
Growth
First-quarter growth was also revised up, to 2.5 percent from 2.1 percent, and the Atlanta Fed's tracker put third-quarter growth around 3.7 percent as of late last week.
Jobs
August payrolls rose by 162,000 against a consensus of 55,000, a beat of about 107,000 jobs, and June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. Unemployment stands at 4.1 percent, and labor force participation rose 0.2 points to 61.6 percent.
Inflation and poverty
Core PCE inflation came in at 3.0 percent against 3.3 percent expected. The Chicago PMI and the ISM Manufacturing index are both in expansion territory and beat forecasts.
The poverty rate fell to 10.2 percent, the lowest on record, and median household income is almost $90,000 in 2025 dollars.
Why does GDP get revised after release?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes three estimates for each quarter: advance, second, and third. The first is built from incomplete data, and later estimates fold in fuller surveys, tax records, and business reports. The agency also does annual updates that can revise figures going back several years. Revisions of a few tenths of a percentage point are routine.
How is the jobs number measured?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces the monthly payroll figure from a survey of more than 100,000 businesses and government agencies. Not every employer responds on time, so the first estimate is incomplete. As more responses arrive, the agency revises the figure over the following two months. A yearly benchmark revision later aligns the survey with unemployment insurance tax records.
Why does the Fed watch PCE inflation?
The PCE price index measures what households spend, and it updates its weights as people shift their purchases. The Federal Reserve formally adopted a 2 percent inflation target, measured by the PCE index, in January 2012. The core version leaves out food and energy, which swing with weather and geopolitics. The index is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
What does an ISM reading above 50 show?
The ISM manufacturing index is built from a monthly survey of purchasing managers who report whether things like new orders, production, and employment are higher, the same, or lower than the month before. A reading of 50 means as many managers report increases as decreases. Above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing, and below 50 signals contraction. The survey has been published since 1948.
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