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Retirement depends on who replaces you
Partisan math
Republicans still control the Senate and the White House, and those are serious factors in a retirement decision. The one truly partisan thing at the court is picking who will replace you. The White House has probably told Justice Alito he can effectively pick his replacement, and he is close to his former clerk, Judge Andy Oldham of the Fifth Circuit, who is on the shortlist.
Clerks as successors
Several recent replacements came from the clerks of the justices they replaced: the chief justice, Justice Kennedy, and Justice Breyer were each followed by one of their former clerks. The trend over-bureaucratizes and professionalizes the court and narrows the experience of the people who become justices.
The book clue
The other clue is Alito's first book, due out the first week of oral arguments next term. A book can mean a justice is finished, yet that timing means no book tour, no handshakes, and no rope lines. It cuts both ways.
Why do justices time retirements around politics?
Justices serve for life, so they choose when a seat opens, and a retirement is easier to plan when the president and Senate share their party. Anthony Kennedy announced his retirement in June 2018, when Republicans held both the presidency and the Senate. Stephen Breyer announced his in January 2022, when Democrats held both. Both announcements came months before a midterm election.
Why do justices' clerks often join the court?
Each justice hires a handful of clerks per term, often from a small set of appellate judges whose own clerks are highly regarded. That path puts young lawyers inside the court's work early. John Roberts clerked for William Rehnquist and succeeded him as chief justice in 2005. Brett Kavanaugh clerked for Anthony Kennedy and took his seat in 2018, and Ketanji Brown Jackson clerked for Stephen Breyer and took his seat in 2022.