Korva is a scroll of the internet’s best ideas.
Human trips keep growing
The human-driven business keeps growing too. Even in San Francisco and LA, where autonomous rides are available, human-driven trips are growing faster than in the rest of the US, so the target keeps moving.
India and Brazil
Uber operates in 75 countries, and two of its three largest by volume are India and Brazil. Autonomy there is decades away from costing less than human labor, and those two markets make up the majority of trips. The majority of Uber's trips will not be autonomous until autonomy reaches Brazil and India.
Dollars versus trips
Dollars tell a different story from trip counts. If autonomy takes the majority of rides in San Francisco, LA, DC, Miami, New York, and Boston, that is a big chunk of Uber's bookings, even while the total number of trips stays low.
Why does explosive growth fade as services scale?
Growth from a tiny base looks dramatic because small numbers double easily. Technology adoption tends to follow an S-shaped curve, with a slow start, a rapid middle, and a flattening end. Sociologist Everett Rogers described this pattern in his 1962 book Diffusion of Innovations. He sorted adopters into innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards.
What limits how fast robotaxis expand to new cities?
Operators typically map each city in detail, test extensively, and obtain permits from regulators before carrying public riders. In California, driverless commercial service requires approval from both the Department of Motor Vehicles and the Public Utilities Commission. Weather, road layouts, and local traffic habits differ from city to city, so each launch needs its own validation work.
More from The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
