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The panel and the veto

After its first nuclear test in 2006, North Korea was placed under some of the most comprehensive trade sanctions ever assembled, covering everything from weapons and luxury goods to hard caps on refined petroleum imports. For years, a UN body called the Panel of Experts, a group of independent investigators, documented violations and published the evidence for the world to see. In March 2024, Russia vetoed the routine resolution that would have kept the panel alive, against the votes of 13 of the 15 council members, with China abstaining.

Why China stays ambiguous

China wants a friendly buffer state between itself and South Korea, which hosts tens of thousands of American troops. North Korea is also a troublesome neighbor, and China's trade with the rest of the world is worth thousands of times more than anything Pyongyang can offer. So Beijing has kept its dealings deliberately ambiguous: close enough to keep the regime alive, distant enough to avoid being punished for it.

The triangle takes shape

With the monitors gone, much more trade can cross the border with plausible deniability, because nobody has a mandate to document it. That completed a triangle. China wants Russia's discounted oil, gas, and raw materials, Russia wants North Korea's war-fighting inventories, and North Korea takes whatever it can get, which in practice means Chinese manufactured goods filling any gaps in the barter ledger.

How did the Panel of Experts work?

The Security Council created the panel in 2009, after North Korea's second nuclear test, to help monitor the sanctions. It had eight independent experts who investigated violations, traced shipments, and inspected seized cargo. Twice a year it published reports with photographs, ship names, and financial trails. Because its mandate had to be renewed each year, a single veto was enough to end it.

How can one country block the Security Council?

The Security Council has five permanent members: China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. A resolution needs at least nine of the fifteen votes, and a no vote from any permanent member defeats it. This power is written into Article 27 of the UN Charter, which dates from 1945. An abstention, such as China's in March 2024, does not block a resolution.

How much of North Korea's trade is Chinese?

South Korea's trade promotion agency KOTRA has reported that China accounted for more than 90 percent of North Korea's recorded trade in 2019. The two countries are also tied by a 1961 treaty of friendship and mutual assistance. That treaty was renewed in 2021 for another twenty years. They share a border of about 1,400 kilometers.

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