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Surprise is a startup's moat
IBM and Apple
IBM, HP, and DEC had no interest in a product their customers weren't asking for. IBM didn't believe the PC could survive long enough to become capable in its markets, and it didn't care about small new markets that wanted a cheaper solution. Apple would never have survived IBM entering the market in 1979, and it lived to compete another day after raising $100 million in its 1980 IPO. It was the only remaining competitor after IBM introduced its own PC and winnowed the field.
Container shipping's lack of time
Container shipping had no such cushion. Its benefits were obvious, and every business with interests at stake had a strategic plan right away. McLean never got the time to seize the barriers to entry that might have protected him, such as dominating the ports, signing exclusive agreements with shippers or other forms of transportation, or standardizing on proprietary technology. Moats take time to build.
AI as no surprise
AI was no surprise either. Its introduction set off an immediate competitive free-for-all, with no period of protected profits for its innovators.
Why did IBM ignore small, cheaper markets?
Clayton Christensen's 1997 book The Innovator's Dilemma describes how leading firms listen to their best customers and chase their highest margins. A cheaper product for a small market looks like a poor investment by those measures. Newcomers improve in that niche until they are good enough for the mainstream. Christensen called the pattern disruptive innovation.
How does proprietary technology protect a company?
Customers who adopt a proprietary format invest time, data, and training in it, and leaving means paying those costs again. Economists call this switching cost. Carl Shapiro and Hal Varian's 1998 book Information Rules describes how such lock-in shapes competition among technology companies.
How did an IPO give Apple breathing room?
Apple went public in December 1980 and raised about $100 million. It was the largest IPO since Ford Motor Company went public in 1956. The money let Apple fund engineering and manufacturing through the years when much larger rivals entered personal computers.
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