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The 30 to 40 percent wall
Curve height
Electric vehicles show that a curve's height can surprise. The expectation was that 40 to 50 percent of cars would go electric, and the adoption instead hit a big wall at 10 or 15 percent. S-curves usually go all the way, but this one didn't, for a variety of reasons, and the model had to be adjusted.
Apple's best years
Apple's first five or six years were its best. The stock was the firm's largest position and rose 50 to 70 percent a year, except in 2008. The firm sold in 2012, when about 50 percent of the US had a smartphone, and that was a mistake. Apple held its leadership, collected 30 percent of the app revenue, and compounded at around 20 percent, but the big years were the 0 to 50 percent part of the curve.
How tall the curve is
How tall the curve is decides how long the growth lasts. If the top of an S-curve is half a trillion dollars, growth can go on for a long time, and missing the first 100 percent is okay.
Why did electric vehicle adoption stall?
Each remaining group of buyers faced harder barriers than the one before, such as higher sticker prices, no home charging for apartment dwellers, and gaps in public charging. Early adopters accepted those tradeoffs and mainstream buyers often would not. A curve can only continue as long as each next group clears the barriers. Forecasters who assumed the early pace would continue overshot.
How does Apple earn from every app?
Apple's App Store opened in July 2008. Apple has charged a standard commission of 30 percent on paid apps and in-app purchases, with developers keeping 70 percent. In 2021 it cut the rate to 15 percent for developers earning under $1 million a year. That fee turned the iPhone's growth into a stream of revenue from software.
Why do earnings beats fade as technologies mature?
An earnings beat means a company reported profit above the average estimate of the analysts covering it. In the steep part of a curve, analysts extrapolate from past growth and keep landing too low because growth keeps accelerating. Near the top, growth becomes steady and predictable, so forecasts match results. Analysts who follow a company from the sell side, at the brokerages, tend to converge on the same numbers.
When did smartphones reach half of the US?
Nielsen reported that smartphones passed half of US mobile subscribers in early 2012. Apple's iPhone had launched in 2007, so it took about five years to reach that mark. After that, most sales were replacements for existing owners, not first-time buyers. Global smartphone shipments kept growing for years, but at a slower rate.
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