A Midterm Wave Does Not Pick The Next President
Big midterm victories have preceded both presidential wins and losses.
The Ezra Klein Show · The End of TrumpismA big win in the midterms feels like a forecast for the White House, but recent history says it is not.
Journalist Ezra Klein points to cases on both sides. In 2006, Democrats did extremely well, and two years later Barack Obama became president and Democrats reached 60 votes in the Senate. In 2018, Democrats won big in the midterms and then won the presidency in 2020.
But the opposite has happened just as clearly. In 1994, Republicans won control with their Contract with America, then lost the White House to Bill Clinton in 1996. In 2010, Republicans handed Obama what he called a shellacking, then Obama won reelection pretty comfortably in 2012.
One reason is that the voters are not quite the same. Klein notes that many so-called swing voters are really occasional voters, people who show up in one election and stay home in the next.
The other reason is that two years is a long time for life to change. After 2006 came anger over a foreign war and then a financial crisis. Klein says there is similar economic shakiness now around artificial intelligence, including what it could mean for data center construction in Texas.
Even Obama's 2012 win shows how uneven the path can be. Klein notes that Obama won comfortably but with fewer electoral votes than in 2008, which is unusual because presidents usually expand their margin, as Ronald Reagan did.
Questions people ask
Why does the president's party usually lose the midterms?
The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterms. Voters who are unhappy turn out to protest, supporters stay home, and local races get nationalized as a referendum on the White House. That makes the result a useful measure of mood, but not of the next presidential matchup.
Why does 60 votes in the Senate matter so much?
Sixty votes can overcome a filibuster, the Senate rule that usually requires a supermajority to pass major bills. With 60 Democrats, the party could advance legislation without Republican support, at least on paper. That is why Klein treats 2008 as more than an Obama win.
What is unusual about Obama winning with fewer electoral votes in 2012?
Presidents who win reelection usually add states and electoral votes the second time, as Ronald Reagan did in 1984. Obama won fewer electoral votes in 2012 than in 2008, while still winning comfortably. Klein cites that as a reminder that even successful reelections do not follow one pattern.