A poker great refused to hear about her bad luck
Eric Seidel told a young Annie Duke that a loss to luck teaches nothing, and pushed her to look for her own mistakes instead.

Talks at Google · Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at GoogleAnnie Duke had just been knocked out of a poker tournament, and she knew exactly what had happened. She had been unlucky. She walked over to her friend Eric Seidel, one of the most successful poker players in the world with more than $38 million in career winnings, to tell him about it.
Duke, a former graduate student in cognitive science who had become a professional player at age 26, was doing what poker players call moaning, complaining about bad luck for sympathy. She was looking for comfort and for confirmation that she had played well.
Seidel would not give it to her. Seidel said, "why are you telling me this," saying that "if you really lost because of bad luck" there is "nothing to be learned from it so" please do "not offload your emotional distress onto me." If you have a question about strategy, he added, I am all ears.
The cold answer changed how Duke played the hands that followed. She began to see the difference between reasoning to be right, which means defending what you already believe, and reasoning to be accurate, which means trying to build the truest picture of what happened, even if it makes you look bad.
Reasoning to be right felt good in the moment. It protected her image of herself as a smart player, and it won sympathy. But it taught her nothing. Reasoning to be accurate was harder, because it required asking whether she had misplayed the hand, whether an opponent had simply outplayed her, and whether the loss was her fault.
Seidel enforced the second kind of thinking. He would not reward complaints about luck. He would reward a good question. So Duke started watching herself differently while she was still at the table. Instead of sorting hands into I got unlucky and I am so smart, she started hunting for mistakes, for spots she did not understand, and for opponents who might be better than she was. Those were the things she could bring back to him.
Then something else happened. When Duke returned and said, "I think I really butchered a hand," Seidel engaged. He talked through the hand with her, took her seriously, and treated the admission as smart, not weak. That praise became a new reward, replacing the old reward of being told she was just unlucky.
When she goes back to him with hands to review, she says, "I think I really made a mistake."
Questions people ask
Who is Eric Seidel?
Seidel is one of the most accomplished tournament players in poker history, with career winnings of more than $38 million. Duke had known him since she was 16, and by the time she turned professional at 26, he was both a friend and a peer she could learn from.
What is the difference between reasoning to be right and reasoning to be accurate?
Motivated reasoning is the broader habit of giving an easy pass to information that supports what you want to believe, while working hard to discredit information that threatens it. In poker, that often looks like calling wins skill and losses bad luck, which feels good but blocks learning.
How can I use this idea in an ordinary decision at work or at home?
Treating a decision like a bet helps. Ask how confident you are and what would prove you wrong. Saying want to bet moves you from certainty to probability, and forces you to consider what you might not know.