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Alberta Is Voting on Leaving Canada, Even Though Most Voters Want to Stay

Polls show most Albertans want to stay, but separatists say getting the question on the ballot is itself a win.

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Alberta is voting today on whether to start the process of leaving Canada, even though about 70% of its own residents say they want to stay.

The western province, which holds much of Canada's oil wealth, has never before put independence to a public vote. This vote is nonbinding, which means it does not itself break up the country. Premier Danielle Smith, the head of Alberta's provincial government, has promised that if the separation side wins, she will respect the result and start the legal process toward a second, binding referendum.

The vote is happening because Smith agreed to put the question on the ballot. According to reporter Amanda Stevenson, who reported from the town of Red Deer, Smith did so to appease a loud and vocal separatist minority that forms a significant part of the base of her own party, even though Smith says she is a federalist, meaning she supports Alberta remaining in Canada.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has spent the past few days in Alberta campaigning for the Remain side and promoting national unity. On that side, the campaign has produced an upswing in patriotism. Stevenson said, "I've seen more Canada flags in Alberta in the last six months than I've ever seen in this province."

According to Stevenson, even separatists who think they will likely fall short welcome having forced the issue onto the ballot and intend to keep pushing for independence afterward.

If the measure somehow passed, the effect would reach well beyond Alberta. Stevenson said, "If it were to pass, that would be a huge political shake-up in Canada, and it would have negative implications for Prime Minister Carney's leadership."

Questions people ask

What happens if the separation side wins?

Nonbinding means the result does not change the law by itself. In this case, a win for separation would require Smith to begin the legal steps toward a second referendum whose result would carry legal force, followed by negotiations with Ottawa.

Why do some Albertans want to separate?

Many grievances center on oil and gas, and on the feeling that federal tax, environmental, and equalization policies take wealth from Alberta to benefit other provinces. Those complaints have fueled Western alienation for decades, even when most Albertans oppose full independence.

Who is Danielle Smith?

Smith is the premier of Alberta and leader of the United Conservative Party. A premier is roughly equivalent to a U.S. governor, running a province rather than the whole country. She took office in 2022.