An Early Democratic Lead Does Not Mean Democrats Are Winning
Republicans tend to wait until Election Day, so the full result only comes into view after their votes are counted.
Up First from NPR · US Prepares For Possible Strikes, Midterm Early Voting, Trump BBC DepositionIf Democrats look ahead in the early vote, that is normal. It does not mean they are winning.
Sage Miller introduces Michael McDonald as "a political science professor at the University of Florida" who "maintains the university's election lab data on early voting" and is tracking early totals state by state. Miller, reporting on those totals, says that "in states that have detailed data, Democrats are voting at higher rates than Republicans," while cautioning against overreading early voting data because "it's often a poor predictor of final results."
Miller says Republicans not matching the Democratic early rate does not mean they are sitting the race out. As Miller puts it: "Democrats are generally more likely to vote early, and Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day."
Miller adds: "That's what's happened in the last few elections, and there's no reason to think it'll be any different this time."
Democrats are not the only group voting early. Miller reports that early voting is also up among unaffiliated voters. McDonald points to strong turnout among voters of color in North Carolina and Georgia. He says that "African-American turnout is up," and that "Hispanics have more than doubled their performance at the same day in 2022."
The takeaway is to wait for both waves of voting. The early vote shows who has voted so far, and Election Day voting is still to come.
Questions people ask
Does low Republican early voting mean Republicans are staying home?
No. Miller says Republicans not voting at the same early rate as Democrats does not mean they are sitting out. Miller says Democrats are generally more likely to vote early, while Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day.
Can early voting predict the winner?
Miller says it is important not to overinterpret early voting data because it is often a poor predictor of final results. The early vote shows who has voted so far, while many Republicans are expected to vote on Election Day.
Are only Democrats voting early?
No. Miller reports that early voting is also up among unaffiliated voters. McDonald points to strong turnout among voters of color in North Carolina and Georgia. He also says African American turnout is up, and Hispanic turnout has more than doubled its same-day 2022 level.