Big Campaign War Chests Matter Less In Famous Races
In an October 27 interview, Nate Silver said early voter-donated money stretches further, especially below the Senate level.
The Ezra Klein Show · Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ MidtermSilver argued that by the time a Senate or presidential race is everywhere, extra ads mostly add repetition rather than new votes.
Election forecaster Nate Silver made that argument about diminishing returns in an interview on October 27, a week before the November 3 midterms. He said campaign money was generally overrated in high profile contests for Senate, governor, and president.
In House and state legislative contests, where he said name recognition and visibility can be an issue, money mattered more.
Silver said those down-ballot contests mattered especially now, with state legislatures and governors tied to what he described as an apparently every two years fight over redistricting, the redrawing of political maps.
Timing helped explain why dollars are not equal. Silver said campaigns using money donated directly by voters got better rates, and got better rates when they had raised the money early and locked in prices when competition was lower.
For that reason, he estimated before the election that the Republican financial advantage, which he described as primarily corporate and party money, translated to something closer to 50-50 in actual ad impressions. That was a pre-election estimate, and the midterms have since been held on November 3.
Questions people ask
Why do ads paid for with voter donations get cheaper rates?
Federal rules give candidates buying time for their own campaigns access to the station's lowest unit rate in certain windows before an election. Outside groups and parties generally pay higher, market-based rates, so the same dollars buy fewer showings.
What are diminishing returns in a campaign?
In practical terms, it means the tenth ad a voter sees moves them less than the first one or two. In a famous race, most voters are already saturated, so late spending largely reaches people who have decided.
If early money is cheaper, is late money useless?
Generally speaking, and as general campaign context rather than Silver's claim in that interview, no. Early money can pay for staff, polls, and reserved ad time before prices rise, while late money can still fill gaps but often pays peak-season prices.