Big publishers could hold up better in AI age because chatbots cannot stream TV shows or sell groceries

The chatbot will not kill every publisher. That is the view of Michael Lehman, president of the Americas at Equativ, a company that helps publishers and advertisers sell ads with software. He agrees that small, long tail websites face a very hard road as chatbots answer questions directly, but he says large, well known publishers have reason for optimism.

Part of the reason is simple mechanics. Online ad spending keeps expanding, and some of that money flows through places a chatbot cannot replace. You cannot watch the next episode of Yellowstone, television streamed over the internet, inside ChatGPT. You cannot buy groceries from Walmart inside ChatGPT, and retail shopping sites and digital out-of-home ads, like billboards and similar outdoor screens, remain insulated from AI, at least for now.

That insulation matters because scarcity helps the survivors. If medium size and long tail publishers go away, Lehman argues, their share of ad budgets does not disappear with them. It becomes available for premium publishers to pursue. He believes brands and agencies still want to spend on the open internet, the collection of independent websites and apps outside big social platforms, rather than put all their money into Facebook or chatbot answers.

Surviving still requires the right strategy, including revenue beyond ads. Lehman points to the New York Times as the clearest example, and says others are following its lead. Lehman believes the price drops of recent years could partly reverse, and that premium publishers with the right strategy could have a good stretch.