Both Sides Were Too Exhausted to Say No to a Hostage Deal
A professor argues Trump boxed in a weakened Netanyahu while Hamas ran out of room to hold on.
blogs.timesofisrael.com · When Insurance Becomes Liability: Why Hamas Chose to Release the HostagesJust after President Donald Trump announced agreement on the final stage of his Gaza proposal, Yehuda Lukacs, associate professor emeritus of global affairs at George Mason University, offered a colder reading in an opinion essay.
Lukacs writes, "Both sides were cornered, one militarily, the other politically, and both found in Trump a figure who could turn their weakness into his own victory."
What looked like an American diplomatic success, he argues, was really fatigue on both sides finding an exit. He calls the release, in his words, "a moment of surrender disguised as strategy" for Hamas, in an arrangement Israel felt unable to refuse.
For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Lukacs argues, Trump had narrowed the options. Washington signaled it would not keep underwriting the campaign without end, while Trump sought a signature success to close the year. Netanyahu, politically weakened at home and abroad after two years of war, with elusive battlefield aims and a split coalition and his "moral standing in tatters," had scant room to refuse. Turning down a plan backed by Washington, Lukacs writes, would have left him isolated.
The bind was tighter, Lukacs argues, because the promise of what he calls "absolute victory" went unfulfilled. For two years Netanyahu had pledged to wipe out Hamas, bring home every captive, and rebuild deterrence, yet none of those ambitions was fully realized. Hard line allies pressed for more fighting rather than settlement, while senior officers said forces were stretched to the limit, and the key backer in Washington indicated patience was ending.
Trump favors vivid symbols of success, Lukacs notes, from hostages getting off Red Cross buses to televised handshakes and declarations of "peace through strength." But Lukacs writes, "the hostages were released not because anyone won, but because everyone lost."
Questions people ask
What did each side get in the exchange?
Under the framework Lukacs describes, Hamas released all remaining hostages in return for a truce and the release of Palestinian prisoners, plus a humanitarian pause. He reads that as Hamas trading what had become a costly burden for prisoners and breathing room, while Israel got its captives back without achieving its broader war aims.
Why is American backing so decisive for Israel?
The United States is Israel's largest arms supplier and its most important diplomatic protector, including at the United Nations. An Israeli prime minister can disagree with a president on tactics, but openly rejecting a U.S.-backed ceasefire risks weapons delays, international isolation, and domestic backlash from a war-weary public.
Did the deal end the war?
Lukacs is skeptical. He calls the Trump plan a purchase of time and headlines, and says whether it brings stability or simply resets the cycle remains uncertain. Later ceasefires in Gaza have often paused fighting without resolving the underlying conflict over territory, security, and Palestinian statehood.