Dementia will strike 24 million people a year by 2050
poorer, younger countries will see the fastest growth, and the global care bill will reach $2 trillion this decade.
Global News Podcast · Annual dementia cases could double by 2050By 2050, 24 million people will be newly diagnosed with dementia every year, double the current pace, according to a sweeping new study of the condition.
Dementia begins with memory loss and fading social skills, then slowly spreads to parts of the brain that control breathing and swallowing. Professor Henry Brodaty, a co-author of the study from the Center for Healthy Aging at the University of New South Wales in Australia, says poorer countries where people are living longer will see particularly rapid increases. In Britain, about 20% of the population is already over 65, and in Australia about 17%, but "that aging is just starting to catch up now" elsewhere.
The bill is already enormous. The world now spends $1.3 trillion a year on dementia care, a figure Brodaty says will reach $2 trillion by 2030. There is one hopeful lever: for every year the onset can be delayed, new cases fall by 10%.
Questions people ask
What exactly is dementia?
Dementia is an umbrella term for a decline in memory, thinking, and social skills severe enough to interfere with daily life. Alzheimer's disease, caused by buildup of a toxic protein called amyloid beta, is the most common cause, followed by vascular dementia from impaired blood flow to the brain.
Why will poorer countries see the fastest increase?
Because their populations are still relatively young but are now living longer. The risk of dementia doubles every five years after age 65, so even a modest rise in the share of people in their 70s, 80s, and 90s produces a much faster rise in cases.
Can anything lower the risk?
About 45% of risk comes from factors that can be changed. More education, regular exercise, and treatment for high blood pressure and high cholesterol all lower risk, as do cleaner air, walkable green spaces, and places to meet and socialize.