Drivers say the other driver was at fault in more than 90% of two-car crashes
Duke recalls about 37% saying it was not their fault in single-car crashes.
Talks at Google · Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at GoogleDrivers say the other driver was at fault in more than 90% of two-car crashes. Duke recalls the figure for single-car crashes as about 37% who say the crash was not their fault, though she says she is unsure of the exact number.
Annie Duke, a former cognitive science graduate student who became a professional poker player, calls the pattern self-serving bias. When we lose, she says, we blame bad luck. When we win, we credit our own skill.
That story protects a positive view of ourselves, and it shows up far beyond traffic. At the poker table, a loss is bad luck and a win proves genius. At work, when someone else gets a promotion, we call it bad luck for us, not evidence that we fell short.
Noticing that habit is how you get better at bets the next time.
Questions people ask
Are those crash numbers about who actually caused the accidents?
They are reports, not rulings. They reflect what drivers tell police and insurers after a crash, not an independent finding about who caused it. Duke cites them as an example of self-serving bias, the pull to protect a positive story about ourselves.
Why does the brain spin wins and losses this way?
Partly to protect a positive story about ourselves. Admitting fault threatens the idea that we are smart, competent actors. Blaming luck preserves that story, while crediting skill for our successes reinforces it.
How can you catch yourself doing it?
Duke suggests treating decisions like bets and checking them with other people. Write down what you expected before the outcome is known, and invite friends or colleagues who will reward honesty about mistakes rather than excuses.