Even a Little Luck Chooses Almost All Our Astronauts
A simple model giving luck just a 5 percent weight still leaves the winners with an average luck score of 94.7 out of 100.
Veritasium · Why Being Delusional is a SuperpowerIn 2017, more than 18,300 people applied to become NASA astronauts. Eleven were chosen and completed training. Even if skill, experience, and hard work counted for 95 percent of the decision and luck counted for only 5 percent, nine or 10 of those 11 winners would have been different people without that sliver of luck.
To show how that happens, Derek Muller, a science educator who built the model, gave every imaginary applicant two numbers from zero to 100. One was skill, and one was luck. He then combined them in a 95 to 5 ratio into an overall score, took the top 11 scores as the new astronaut class, and repeated the whole selection 1,000 times.
Near the top, with 18,300 applicants, many candidates have nearly identical skill scores bunched together, so a small push from luck decides between them. The simulated winners were very lucky, with an average luck score of 94.7 out of 100. Judged on skill alone, only 1.6 of the 11, on average, would have made the cut.
Skill gets you into the huge pack of plausible winners, and luck picks among them. When the pool is giant and the openings are few, the typical winner is both excellent and extremely lucky.
Questions people ask
Does this mean the real astronauts were not deserving?
No. In the model, skill still counts for 95 percent, so winners almost always come from the highly skilled group. Luck only decides which of those many highly qualified people gets one of the 11 seats. They still had to be excellent to be in contention.
What does luck mean here?
In the model it just means fortunate circumstances, weighted at 5 percent. Examples are a tailwind behind seven of eight track and field world records examined, and being born in a prosperous country rather than a poor one.
Does this only happen for astronauts?
No. Luck matters more as more people compete for few spaces. For example, world-class athletes still needed a tailwind to set seven of eight world records examined. The astronaut simulation applies that same math to 18,300 applicants chasing 11 places.