Midterms Are Decided by Who Shows Up
Young, non-white, and independent voters report low enthusiasm, while college-educated voters reliably vote and now lean Democratic.
Up First from NPR · Democrats Lead In NPR Poll, Preparations For Election Challenge, Israel Voting BeginsThe most important vote in a midterm is the one that never gets cast.
Presidential elections draw a big, broad crowd. Midterms draw a smaller, different crowd. Younger people and Black and Latino people have traditionally turned out at disproportionately lower rates when the presidency is not on the ballot. So even if a party looks popular nationally, it can lose if its supporters stay home.
That tension is showing up now. Domenico Montanaro, NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, analyzed a major new national poll and found that only 42 percent of young voters said they were very enthusiastic about voting. Among independents who have soured on President Trump, the share was 48 percent. Among non-white voters, it was 53 percent. All three groups lagged behind more pro-Trump groups, which Montanaro identified as "MAGA voters, white women without college degrees, and white evangelical voters."
There has been a second shift. In the political realignment under Trump, college-educated white voters have moved toward Democrats. Those voters also turn out at far higher rates relative to their size, which gives them extra weight in a low turnout election.
Montanaro calls midterms, even more than presidential elections, a "volatile stew of uncertainty." From one November to the next, the electorate changes shape because different groups report different levels of enthusiasm and turn out at different rates. In short, midterm results turn on who makes it to the polls.
Questions people ask
Why do fewer young and Black and Latino voters turn out for midterms?
Political scientists point to age, mobility, and contact. Younger voters move more often, have less stable voting habits, and are contacted less by campaigns. Black and Latino voters have historically faced more practical barriers to voting and also receive less outreach in nonpresidential years.
Why do college-educated voters turn out at higher rates?
Education is one of the strongest predictors of voting in the United States. College graduates are more likely to be registered, to follow political news closely, and to have jobs with flexible schedules and paid leave. They are also more likely to be contacted by campaigns and civic groups.
What is the political realignment mentioned in the story?
Over the past decade, college-educated white voters, once reliably Republican, have moved toward Democrats, while voters without degrees, especially white voters, have moved toward Republicans. The shift accelerated under President Trump and is tied to views on culture, education, trade, and trust in institutions.