Most Allies Thought Putin Was Bluffing on Ukraine
The warning helped Ukrainians defend themselves and helped Washington build a coalition, then early disclosures undercut Moscow's story.
Not Dead Yet · Bill BurnsWilliam J. Burns, the former CIA director and career American diplomat, counts the run-up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a moment when American intelligence got an important call right.
The CIA and the rest of American intelligence provided "a credible early warning about what was coming," Burns said. Most allies were deeply skeptical and thought Russian leader Vladimir Putin was bluffing. The British were the exception, the one ally that agreed with the American warning.
The warning helped Ukrainians defend themselves, and helped the American president "build a strong coalition of countries," Burns said.
Washington then took an unusual step. Rather than hold its findings close, it declassified some secrets and shared them early. The goal, Burns said, was to "deny Putin the ability to create a false narrative."
He said he had seen Putin use that kind of misleading story many times before. By speaking first, in Burns's account, Washington made it harder for Moscow to invent a pretext.
As CIA director, he traveled to Ukraine 14 times, a mark of the agency's commitment to support Ukrainians in what remains a bloody and costly fight that has so far succeeded in resisting Russia.
The episode stands out, in his telling, against a longer record in which Washington sometimes got Russia right and sometimes got it wrong.
Questions people ask
What does it mean to declassify intelligence?
Declassification means the government decides that information once kept secret can be made public. Officials usually release the conclusion while still hiding how they learned it, to protect people and methods. In general, governments do it when warning allies or the public matters more than keeping the secret.