Silver Estimates Florida Turned Red Largely Because Republicans Moved There
In late October, Silver estimated newcomers did most of the work and registration losses did the rest.
The Ezra Klein Show · Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ MidtermNot long ago, Florida was the canonical swing state. In late October, before the midterms, election analyst Nate Silver estimated its shift was roughly 75 percent migration and 25 percent Democratic decline.
Migration did most of the work, in his estimate. Silver said Florida offered blue-state amenities without as many liberals, an appeal that long attracted older people and, more recently, people who already leaned Republican.
That is political self-selection. People choose a place that fits their politics, so the moves alone make the state redder without anyone changing their mind.
On registration, Silver said that in most states people had begun registering more as Democrats than Republicans again after four or five years. He said those comebacks were happening especially in Midwestern states such as Pennsylvania, while Florida kept getting redder.
The rest, Silver said, might be a self-reinforcing decline for Democrats. As registration gets redder, competing gets harder, and struggling makes rebuilding harder.
Silver said a Democratic statewide win in Florida would now feel almost as remarkable as one in Kansas or Texas. Ezra Klein said Florida had gone from swing state to more Republican than Texas.
Silver also said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had drawn a riskier House map optimized for strong Republican presidential years. He said it left many toss-up to lean Republican districts that could have been exposed in a strongly Democratic environment.
Questions people ask
Could Florida become a swing state again?
Silver did not address whether Florida could swing back. He said only that Florida kept getting redder at the registration level while Democrats were gaining registrants in most other states.
What does political self-selection mean?
It means voters sort themselves by moving. People who like lower taxes, warmer weather, or conservative policies may prefer Florida, while liberals may prefer to stay in or move to other states. Over time, moves alone can change a state's politics without anyone changing their mind.
Why would a map built for presidential years be risky in a wave?
After the census every 10 years, states redraw House boundaries. A party in control can spread its voters efficiently to win more seats, but that can create many narrow wins. In a strong year for the other party, several of those narrow seats can flip at once.