Stalled hiring has made it harder to get a raise by switching jobs

Stalled hiring has made it harder to get a raise by switching jobs, and that difficulty is probably what people are feeling when the economy looks strong on paper, according to Tara Sinclair, a George Washington University economist.

Sinclair described the market as a low-hire, low-fire stretch, meaning employers are laying off very few people but also adding very few new workers. First-time claims for jobless aid have held near historic lows for weeks, and layoffs have stayed low, which in her view is better than a jump in layoffs. She said she is, in her words, "somewhat heartened by its persistence," because she had worried that low hiring would give way to higher layoffs, and it has not.

The steady numbers hide the pay problem. In general, changing employers is often how workers win a larger increase. A new company usually has to beat current pay to lure someone away, and with fewer openings, workers have less leverage to bargain. People "trying to find a new job or thinking about changing jobs in order to get a higher wage," in Sinclair's words, are not having much success.

On paychecks, Sinclair argued the trouble is simple. In her words: "people are looking at their wages and it's just not keeping up." She said earnings are not stretching far enough to support the lifestyle people are used to, or the one they expected at this stage of life. In her view, a healthier market would be one where companies add workers freely and moves bring higher pay.