The Iran war brought no rally, and approval fell
Trump promised to avoid foreign entanglements, but the long Iran fight brought falling approval without a unifying lift.
Up First from NPR · Bracing For Hurricane Isaias, Ukraine Pushes Russia Back, Iran War Impact On MidtermsWhen President Trump posted that the United States would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, the question was why he would tie a war to an election and promise in advance not to strike. Domenico Montanaro, NPR's senior political editor and correspondent, said the post was a clear sign Trump knew the war was hurting his party.
His explanation, in his words, was that prolonged unpopular wars "can be and have been dangerous for any president and his party." He pointed to Iraq, Vietnam, and Korea as examples, and said the risk is even higher in an election-year October when a president is already unpopular.
Montanaro argues the key difference is how the war started. Writing early in the conflict, in March, he noted there had been "no real rally around the flag effect," the polling term for "when the country unifies and a president benefits" after the country is attacked and feels compelled to respond.
"This was a war of choice," Montanaro said, and Americans had been "war-weary from decades in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria." He recalled Trump had promised to avoid foreign entanglements, and said in his inaugural address that avoiding wars might define his presidency.
Across polling averages, Montanaro said, Trump's approval fell from 48 percent when the war began to 37 percent. He said it was a similar drop to what President Biden saw "after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan," and that Biden never really recovered, especially while dealing with a difficult economy.
Questions people ask
What is the rally-around-the-flag effect?
It is the tendency for a president's approval rating to rise sharply during an international crisis, especially after an attack on the country. Americans set aside partisan differences for a time, and express support for the leader. The effect is usually temporary, and fades as the crisis drags on.
Why didn't the Iran war produce that rally?
Montanaro argues it is because Americans saw it as a war of choice rather than a necessary response to being attacked. The public was also tired after long engagements in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Without a sense of compelled self-defense, there was no unifying moment.
What happened to Biden after the Afghanistan withdrawal?
Montanaro said Biden suffered a similar drop in approval after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. He said Biden never really recovered, especially while also dealing with a difficult economy.