The Lowest Scorers Thought They Were Above Average
In some of the experiments, for example, the bottom quarter placed themselves around the 60th percentile when they were near the 10th.
Nautilus · Why We Think We Know More Than We DoThe lowest scorers on tests of humor, logic, and grammar thought they were above average. In some of the studies, they placed themselves around the 60th percentile when they were actually around the 10th.
The numbers came from four experiments described in a 1999 paper, "Unskilled and Unaware of It," by Cornell psychologist David Dunning and graduate student Justin Kruger. They tested college students and asked them to guess how they had done, in absolute terms and compared with others. The pattern kept showing up: the bottom quarter thought they were doing fine.
Dunning said the first data set was a revelation, and he was astonished by the size of the gap. His explanation was that the same missing skill causes both problems: it produces the wrong answer and it blocks people from recognizing the error. He called the first step cognition, making a judgment, and the second metacognition, judging how good that judgment was.
Questions people ask
Did the highest scorers judge themselves accurately?
Not exactly. Top performers tended to slightly underestimate how they ranked compared with others. Researchers think that is partly because if something seems easy or obvious to you, you assume it seems that way to everyone else.
Is this just false modesty or bragging?
No, the students privately estimated their scores and percentiles, with no audience to impress. Later studies also found that poor estimators made costly choices based on those beliefs. The error appears to reflect what people genuinely believe, not what they say out loud.