This El Niño Is Already the Strongest on Record for This Time of Year
It is still climbing toward its normal winter peak, with tropical storms reaching Hawaii and drought fueling fires in Indonesia.
Short Wave · 'Super' El Niño is coming. What should you expect?The El Niño building across the Pacific is already stronger at this point in the year than any other with good data, and it is still strengthening, according to Julia Cole, a University of Michigan climate scientist who leads its earth and environmental sciences department. That matters because stronger El Niños bring stronger floods, droughts, and temperature swings to people far from the ocean.
The World Meteorological Organization describes the event as far beyond anything on record, and some scientists have nicknamed it a super or Godzilla event. Cole said the timing is what makes that comparison matter: this one is early and still climbing, and "Normally, El Niños reach their strongest point around November, December, January."
In Cole's judgment, "We're virtually guaranteed to get a record-breaking El Niño in the coming year." She said, "Stronger El Niños lead to stronger impacts," and some of those impacts are already visible.
Tropical storms have struck Hawaii, while Indonesia is in extreme drought that has fueled wildfires and poor air quality. Fires have swept across hundreds of thousands of acres in Indonesia amid the drought.
Cole also expects this El Niño to supercharge global temperatures. In her assessment, record global temperatures are possible in 2026 and almost certain in 2027.
Questions people ask
What exactly is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural warming of surface water in the central and eastern Pacific that happens every two to seven years. That warm water shifts rainfall, winds, and ocean currents, which can change weather around the world for months. Its cool counterpart is called La Niña.
Why would El Niño set a global temperature record?
El Niño moves large amounts of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. When that happens on top of heat already trapped by greenhouse gases, the average global temperature can jump. That is why the hottest years on record often follow a strong El Niño.
Why do Hawaii and Indonesia feel it first?
Hawaii sits near the warmer central Pacific, where El Niño can steer more tropical storms nearby. Indonesia sits on the other side of the pattern, where El Niño often suppresses rain and brings hot, dry conditions. Dry forests and farmland then burn more easily, which fouls the air.