When Experts Are Wrong, They Are More Sure Than Beginners
Soft cues about themselves, like a fancy degree, can make even top performers speak with authority far outside their field.
Nautilus · Why We Think We Know More Than We DoWhen experts are wrong, they are more confident that they are right than beginners are.
That is the twist psychologist David Dunning, coauthor of the 1999 work behind the Dunning-Kruger effect, says he now sees again and again. Experts are better at telling a right decision from a wrong one, and on average they are "better at being right, and at knowing when they’re right."
But high confidence is not a guard against being wrong. Dunning points to what some call Nobel disease, when a prize winner speaks with authority outside his own field.
It was everywhere during the pandemic, he says, when people with fancy degrees opined about vaccines and epidemiology though "they had no business doing it." For many people, their sense of competence comes from soft cues about themselves, like a Harvard degree, not from knowing their circle of competence.
Questions people ask
Why would an expert be more confident than a beginner when both are wrong?
One plausible explanation is that an expert has a large history of being right, so confidence becomes a habit. When a new problem feels similar to old ones, that feeling of certainty may carry over even if key details are different. A beginner has no such track record to lean on.
What does "circle of competence" mean?
It is the set of subjects where you have real training and feedback, and can judge your own limits. The idea, popularized by investor Warren Buffett, is to stay inside that circle and be cautious outside it. Dunning's point is that cues like a degree can make people forget where the edge is.