Whoever wins Brazil's election will still have to deal with China
Washington wants access to Brazil's minerals, but Beijing's pull is too strong for any winner to escape.
Reuters World News · France protests, Texas Senate race and West Bank olivesBrazil is about to choose between two very different futures, and Washington and Beijing are both watching the ground beneath it.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term that would not be consecutive and turns 81 next week, faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. The senator's father is former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro lost a close 2022 election to Lula and was afterward convicted over a scheme to reverse that defeat. Polls show the runoff, the final round between the two top candidates, is nearly even.
The reason the contest matters far beyond Brazil is the rare earths buried underground, the minerals Washington and Beijing both want. Gabriel Stargardter, a reporter in Sao Paulo, says China holds the biggest reserve of those minerals, with Brazil holding the next biggest. He describes that underground wealth as the Trump administration's main geopolitical interest in Brazil.
If Flavio Bolsonaro wins, Stargardter says, "I think it's safe to assume that the Trump administration will want to pull Brazil closer into its orbit." He expects Washington to seek broad access for American companies interested in those minerals. That push would fit Flavio Bolsonaro's Trump alignment. He is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, a close ideological ally of President Donald Trump.
But that alignment has a limit. Describing China's pull on a Flavio presidency, Stargardter says, "But Flavio Bolsonaro is not going to be able to turn his back on China at all." Stargardter says, "And that will be just a sort of gravitational force on his presidency that neither he nor the Americans will be able to do a great deal about."
Lula offers the mirror image. Stargardter says Lula would keep steering a middle course between Washington and Beijing, and stay outspoken on behalf of developing nations that want to act independently of the two superpowers. Whoever wins will also face a difficult Congress, where allies of the Bolsonaro movement gained ground and could make governing hard.
In Stargardter's view, voters can change the president, but they cannot move the minerals, and those minerals keep Brazil tied to both sides.
Questions people ask
What are rare earths actually used for?
Rare earths are 17 related metals used in small amounts to make powerful magnets, batteries, and electronics. They show up in electric cars, wind turbines, smartphones, and guided weapons. That is why access to them is treated as a national security issue.
Why can't Brazil just sell only to the United States?
China dominates not just mining but refining and magnet-making, and it is also Brazil's largest trading partner, buying vast amounts of soy, iron ore, and oil. Cutting off China would risk both export income and supply chains. So Brazil has an incentive to sell to everyone and offend no one.
Who is Flavio Bolsonaro?
Flavio Bolsonaro is a Brazilian senator and the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. His father, a far-right populist and ally of Donald Trump, lost reelection in 2022 and was later convicted in connection with a plot to overturn that loss. Flavio has run as the heir to his father's political movement.