Cuba Was Barely Holding On… And Then The Oil Ran Out

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Venezuelan oil deliveries fell from nearly 100,000 barrels daily during Chávez’s later years to about 15,000 in 2025.
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With 84% of water-pumping systems dependent on electricity, about one million Cubans needed diesel tanker trucks for clean water.
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After Cuba’s 2021 devaluation, a $200 import’s accounting cost jumped from 200 pesos to 4,800 pesos overnight.
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At its peak, Venezuela sent Cuba nearly 100,000 barrels of oil daily while Cuba sent about 40,000 personnel.
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Cuba is enduring its largest migration wave ever, and 78% of those remaining say they plan to leave.
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Cuba’s hard-currency income, remittances, banking system, and informal economy are being squeezed at the same time.
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The United States sanctioned Díaz-Canel, his wife, and senior officials while direct talks with Cuba were still ongoing.
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Cuba’s escape routes are all blocked: no international borrowing, insufficient production, sanctions, and investment risks tied to US-market exclusion.
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Cuba’s reforms could be genuine liberalization or an attempt to avert invasion. Díaz-Canel denies US pressure caused them.
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Cuba could open private investment while GISA captures it, leaving the military elite in control under private labels.
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Cuba’s crisis began when Venezuela stopped sending oil traded for Cuban food, medical labor, and political support.
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China supplied Cuba 49 solar parks since early 2025, adding over 1,000 megawatts and lifting solar’s share above 20%.
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China, Russia, and others are contesting American financial and diplomatic leverage, not Cuba’s immediate shortages.
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Cuba faces rolling blackouts lasting up to 20 hours a day as state industries collapse and agriculture declines.
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Cuba directed 32% of national investment to tourism but only 12% to energy infrastructure.
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Cuba received 4.2 million visitors in 2019 and earned more than $2.5 billion from tourism.
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Global trade forces inefficient industries to become more efficient, pushing governments toward freer markets over time.

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