If I was 21 again, this is what I’d do different - Howard Marks

15 insights saved from this video by @money

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After strong results, shrinking the next fund can signal that opportunities have deteriorated.
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There is no pattern recognition for the end of the world.
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For unprecedented events, decisions combine limited data, analogies, and supposition. At the extreme, only supposition remains.
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People who claim certainty in a probabilistic world may be showing a warning sign, not confidence.
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You can teach the importance of contrarian thinking, but not how to produce the right contrarian insight.
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Even at full development, nobody knows whether AI will possess genuine insight.
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The defining AI question is still unanswered: are its capabilities limited, or effectively unlimited?
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The most dangerous investment error is treating false certainty as real, then sizing a bet accordingly.
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A favorable short-term track record may reflect luck rather than skill when randomness dominates outcomes.
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Saying “I could be wrong” or “I don’t know” is a practical defense against overconfidence.
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A battle hero is not fearless. Courage means taking necessary action before fear makes the opportunity disappear.
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AI is unlike earlier technologies: nobody knows what its eventual shape will be.
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Shared values and complementary skills are the key to a successful partnership. Major value conflicts threaten the relationship.
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A successful partnership requires shared values and complementary skills from the people building it.
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Mutual respect is the bedrock of a durable partnership. Without it, the foundation is missing.

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