The Entry-Level Job Crisis

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Easy access to new jobs supports consumption, borrowing, and long-term investment by reassuring households about debt repayment.
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Entry-level applicants needed 300 applications in 2025, up from 100 in 2022, and over half search six months.
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University of Michigan consumer sentiment is at its lowest since 1960, below the Great Recession, pandemic, and 1970s oil crisis.
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Some families pay up to $50,000 for career coaches, while “reverse recruiting” costs applicants thousands monthly.
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AI has barely caused layoffs outside tech, yet fear of AI’s unknown timing is already freezing hiring.
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Hiring, firing, and quitting have all fallen sharply, freezing the labor market instead of producing a simple layoff wave.
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Monthly layoffs are about 100,000 lower than during the three years before the pandemic, undermining the idea of an AI layoff wave.
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Young workers, mostly recent college graduates, account for 85% of the rise in U.S. unemployment since mid-2023.
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Tech layoffs began before ChatGPT’s release, though AI has affected programming jobs more directly and measurably.
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New graduates face a jobless start while student-loan interest keeps accumulating.
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Hiring is a forecast about economic conditions months or years ahead, so uncertainty makes firms reluctant to commit.
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Companies are increasingly using temporary workers to preserve flexibility while avoiding long-term commitments amid uncertainty.
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College degrees have become less distinctive, but the sudden entry-level crisis points to an additional cause.

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