The Storm Before The World War? | Odd Arne Westad

Rapid diffusion of transformative technologies creates fear because states expect rivals to gain decisive military advantages, which spurs arms races and riskier, preemptive strategies.

China's fast economic and technological gains have created strategic gaps because European and Western institutions and policies have been slower to adapt, eroding previous advantages and leverage.

China's rapid development reflects centralized long-term planning more than authoritarianism alone, because uniform, sustained policy choices let the state reshape industry and infrastructure quickly.

If guaranteed access to energy runs low and alternatives or reserves are exhausted, a state may use military force to secure maritime chokepoints because energy shortfalls can threaten the entire economy.

When leaders are insulated and dissent is punished, decision-making relies on filtered information and amplified assumptions, which narrows strategic options and raises the risk of reckless miscalculation.

When power is spread across many states, fewer shared rules and more independent action by middle powers make coordination harder, which increases the chance that disputes will spiral into broader conflicts.

As a war drags on, miscalculation and proxy escalation grow because persistent fighting creates more opportunities and incentives for other great powers and their allies to become directly or indirectly involved.

Taiwan is especially dangerous as a flashpoint because it combines nationalist claims, contested sovereignty, and high strategic value, which makes local moves carry territorial and geopolitical consequences that draw in external powers.