Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke

20 insights saved from this video by @psychology

@psychology
A bad outcome does not prove a bad decision. Judging decisions by results is called resulting.
@psychology
Pete Carroll got demolished for switching grocery lines. Progress sometimes requires abandoning a default that failure would have protected.
@psychology
Higher IQ correlates with more motivated reasoning because mental agility makes defending existing beliefs easier.
@psychology
People’s momentary emotions are path-dependent: immediate adversity can overwhelm the emotional impact of far more significant earlier events.
@psychology
Before outcomes occur, record possible results, their probabilities, and your reasoning so hindsight cannot rewrite the decision.
@psychology
Ask for an opinion before revealing your own. Your view contaminates someone else’s independent assessment.
@psychology
Treating claims as bets turns certainty into probabilities and makes counterevidence harder to ignore.
@psychology
Trust intuition for immediate decisions, but hold it accountable to deliberation and make it explainable to someone else.
@psychology
Once beliefs become probabilities, investigate why you might be wrong and actively seek opposing views.
@psychology
Uncertainty has two sources: hidden information blocks complete knowledge, while luck makes outcomes unpredictable even when all relevant information is known.
@psychology
Uncertainty is unavoidable: information is incomplete, and the future can surprise you even when failure seems unlikely.
@psychology
Meet a child’s failure story with empathy, then ask what they control and can change next time.
@psychology
Repeated conversations with a good decision group become habits of mind that challenge your biases when you are alone.
@psychology
People stop pressing their luck when a group rewards admitting mistakes instead of self-protective excuses.
@psychology
For independent judgments, keep advisers apart and hide the decision-maker’s preference until everyone has given an opinion.
@psychology
An illness that landed someone in the hospital looked like bad luck, yet its constraints opened a path into poker.
@psychology
We are not naturally built to disconfirm existing beliefs, so ambiguous evidence gets interpreted in those beliefs’ favor.
@psychology
Trusted people can correct impostor feelings by evaluating your performance objectively and pointing to evidence of competence.
@psychology
The resources at stake in a decision include money, health, happiness, and time.
@psychology
Strong investors spread bets across a large basket while vetting every opportunity for a sufficiently large expected payoff.

More from Talks at Google

See everything from Talks at Google

Post on X

Keep what you found in Thinking in Bets | Annie Duke | Talks at Google

A free account saves any of these cards to your Collection, and Korva resurfaces them so you actually remember.