Where Has Venezuela's Oil Gone?

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Since the 1990s, American refiners have spent billions building cokers for heavy, high-sulfur crude from Venezuela, Mexico, and Ecuador.
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ConocoPhillips won more than $8.5 billion in World Bank arbitration, above $12 billion with interest, plus a separate $2 billion ICC award.
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A Qatari account became the neutral middleman, holding Venezuela’s oil proceeds while US-approved allowances funded operations.
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Most Venezuelan oil-sale revenue remains unaccounted for beyond funds placed in Qatar and the US Treasury.
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Congress reportedly lacks reliable answers about Venezuela’s oil collections, sale prices, and the money’s route home.
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Judgment creditors hold roughly $20 billion in claims against Venezuela, much of it tied to the court-ordered sale of Citgo.
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New Venezuela investments could be seized again if a future US or Venezuelan administration reverses today’s arrangement.
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Routing Venezuela’s entire oil revenue through opaque traders with legal and reputational controversies clashes with transparent national recovery.
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Venezuela’s previous attempts at sweeping change mostly worsened conditions, making optimism about another major transition hard to defend.
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Repairing and modernizing Venezuela’s oil infrastructure could cost up to $100 billion.
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Merey 16 usually sells at least $6 below Brent, with sanctions risk pushing its discount above $20.
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US Gulf Coast refineries were built for Venezuelan crude, with billions invested in cokers and deep-conversion capacity.
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Venezuela’s oil revival depends on credible elections, a completed transition, and institutions investors can trust.
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With new investment, independent analysts estimate Venezuela could sustainably reach 1.5–2 million barrels daily within three to five years.
@money· How Money & Economics Work
Venezuelan exports surged from below one million to above 1.2 million barrels per day within months.

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