Why We Think We Know More Than We Do

13 insights saved from this article by @psychology

@psychology· How We Think
Poor performers cannot recognize their errors when the skills for doing a task overlap with judging it.
@psychology· How We Think
One study found AI reversing Dunning-Kruger, making the best performers more overconfident than the worst.
@psychology· How We Think
In the original 1999 experiments, bottom-quartile participants estimated the 60th percentile while actually around the 10th.
@psychology· How We Think
Experts recognize correct answers better than novices, but when wrong, they can be even more certain.
@psychology· How We Think
Epistemic trespassing happens when authority earned in one domain gets used to claim competence in another.
@psychology· How We Think
Research finds a confidence reversal: people overestimate themselves on hard tasks and underestimate themselves on easy ones.
@psychology· How We Think
People are overconfident on difficult tasks and underconfident on easy ones, despite confidence staying moderate to high.
@psychology· How We Think
Calling opponents “Dunning-Kruger” turns a self-reflection framework into an insult that protects your own blind spots.
@psychology· How We Think
People are especially prone to misjudge their ability to distinguish fake news from real news.
@psychology· How We Think
Dunning-Kruger risk is greater in logic than golf because judging performance uses the same abilities as performing.
@psychology· How We Think
Everyone tends to rate themselves above average, so the least capable overestimate their abilities the most.
@psychology· How We Think
A pre-mortem imagines spectacular failure, identifies its causes, and prevents them before the plan begins.
@psychology· How We Think
Differential diagnosis tests alternative explanations instead of settling on the first plausible cause of symptoms.

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