Several early successes can give poker players or fund managers durable belief in skill, making later evidence look like luck.

A good decision can lose, and a bad decision can win. Outcome quality alone cannot prove decision…

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A good outcome can follow a good decision, an irrelevant decision, inevitability, or a bad…

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Decision-making works like driving: move fast on straightaways, slow down for curves, and identify…

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The “centenarian Olympics” turns longevity into concrete targets by asking what you want your body…

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The longer feedback takes, the more room uncertainty gives self-serving bias to rewrite what…

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Do not claim credit when an unrelated acquisition rescues an investment thesis absent from your…

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Pocket aces beat pocket fives roughly 80% of the time, yet pocket fives can still win that hand.

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In poker, a correct decision can still lose when subsequent cards run against it.

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