Do not claim credit when an unrelated acquisition rescues an investment thesis absent from your model.

A good decision can lose, and a bad decision can win. Outcome quality alone cannot prove decision…

@psychology

Several early successes can give poker players or fund managers durable belief in skill, making…

@psychology

A good outcome can follow a good decision, an irrelevant decision, inevitability, or a bad…

@psychology

Decision-making works like driving: move fast on straightaways, slow down for curves, and identify…

@psychology

The “centenarian Olympics” turns longevity into concrete targets by asking what you want your body…

@psychology

The longer feedback takes, the more room uncertainty gives self-serving bias to rewrite what…

@psychology

Pocket aces beat pocket fives roughly 80% of the time, yet pocket fives can still win that hand.

@psychology

In poker, a correct decision can still lose when subsequent cards run against it.

@psychology