#60 – Annie Duke: How to improve decision making, learning, & apply ‘backcasting’ for future success12 insights · See all
- As the skill gap between competitors narrows, luck has a larger proportional influence on outcomes because stochastic variability dominates single events, so only long series or marginal edges reveal true superiority.
As the skill gap between competitors narrows, luck has a larger proportional influence on outcomes because stochastic variability dominates single events, so only long series or marginal edges reveal true superiority.
- When organizations punish unexpected bad outcomes more than they reward unexpected successes, people avoid non–status-quo choices because fear of blame pushes them toward low-volatility options that protect reputation and suppress innovation.
When organizations punish unexpected bad outcomes more than they reward unexpected successes, people avoid non–status-quo choices because fear of blame pushes them toward low-volatility options that protect reputation and suppress innovation.
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