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1% risk ended the Super Bowl
The call
Seattle trailed by four with the ball on the one-yard line, 26 seconds left, second down, and one timeout. A touchdown would probably win the game, since New England was unlikely to have enough time to march back down the field and score. Everyone expected Seattle to hand the ball to running back Marshawn Lynch, a short-yardage specialist. Coach Pete Carroll called a pass instead. Russell Wilson threw, and Malcolm Butler intercepted it.
The reaction
The reaction was brutal. The broadcast called it a horrible call, and the next day most of the major outlets argued over whether it was the worst call in Super Bowl history. USA Today went further and named it the worst call in football history.
The odds
An interception in that spot happens somewhere around 1 to 2 percent of the time, depending on how many seasons are counted. About 40 percent of the time the pass falls incomplete, and that stops the clock. With one timeout, two running plays would use up so much time that Seattle could get only two plays off in total. An incomplete pass leaves time for those same two runs, which makes three plays.
That made the pass a somewhat free option, with a cost of roughly a 1 percent chance of an interception. Benjamin Morris wrote a detailed analysis of the call on 538.
Why does an incomplete pass stop the clock?
In the NFL, a pass that falls incomplete makes the play dead at once, and the game clock stops until the next snap. A running play, by contrast, leaves the clock moving after the whistle unless the runner goes out of bounds or a timeout is called. That is why a team protecting a lead runs the ball to drain time. A trailing team needs incompletions, sideline plays, or timeouts to keep seconds from disappearing.
How do analysts estimate the odds of one play?
Analysts pull play-by-play records from past seasons and filter them down to the same down, distance, and spot on the field. They then count how often each kind of play ended in a touchdown, an incompletion, or an interception. Goal-line passes are rare, so the sample is small, and adding or dropping a few seasons moves the percentages noticeably. Public play-by-play data for the NFL covers many decades, which is why different analysts publish slightly different figures.
Why is the goal line so hard for a running back?
A defense inside the five-yard line has only a few feet of field to protect, so it can pack extra linemen and linebackers close to the ball. There is no room behind the defenders to run into, and the end zone's back line sits only a few yards behind the goal line. Offenses answer with play-action passes and fades to the corner, where height and timing matter more than size in the middle of the line. Short-yardage runs from the one-yard line are stopped far more often than the yardage suggests, because the defense knows exactly where the ball must go.
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