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A general vanished, phone left behind

McCaslin was the officer who kept telling Tom DeLonge to think of the Greek gods. He left his phone at home, and one of his firearms was missing. The day before, he went to REI for a medical kit and other supplies, and he was going on a trip with about 18 of his friends.

His wife's conversation about him with police is public through body camera footage. He had some mental health issues, nothing major, along with aging-type issues, and she did not think he would hurt himself. Contacts at the Justice Department have no answer either.

Other scientists tied to UAP work have been listed among the disappeared, though the pattern is a little overblown. One example is a woman who worked at Air Force Research Lab while McCaslin was a commander there, and a lot of people work at that lab.

How do investigators trace a missing person?

Investigators work from the last known movements, then look at vehicles, store purchases, financial transactions, and camera footage. Search teams comb areas where the person was likely headed. A phone left behind removes one of the most useful tools, since location records from a phone often pin down where someone went. In the United States, the National Missing and Unidentified Persons System keeps a public database of open cases.

Why do disappearance clusters seem meaningful?

Large groups always contain coincidences, and people notice the ones that fit a pattern. The Texas sharpshooter fallacy describes this error: shooting at a barn wall and drawing the target around the holes afterward. A workforce of thousands, such as the one at Air Force Research Laboratory, will produce unexplained departures over decades by chance alone. Statisticians test a suspected cluster against the base rate for a comparable population.

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