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A weak ally can drag in giants
Russia's declining position
Russia is a great power in decline on most scores, with quarrels with almost all of its neighbors, not just Ukraine: look at the Baltics, look at Poland. It is allied, or in this case pseudo allied, to the most important rising power in the world, which happens to be right next door.
A wider war risk
If something goes wrong in Russia's wars of aggression, of which there have been a few now, that could lead toward a wider war, and China and the United States could be drawn much more directly into the conflict.
Ending the Ukraine war
That is why a ceasefire in Ukraine matters, though not one that accepts Russia's land grab or leaves Ukraine out in the cold. Ukraine needs to be integrated into a European setting as quickly as possible, and Russia needs to be excluded from meaningful interaction with the West until it is willing to negotiate a full peace agreement that Ukrainians would also support.
How did Austria drag Germany into war?
On 5 and 6 July 1914, Germany assured Austria-Hungary of full support if it acted against Serbia, a promise later called the blank cheque. Austria-Hungary then sent Serbia an ultimatum on 23 July and declared war on 28 July. Russia's mobilization to defend Serbia led Germany to declare war on Russia on 1 August. Austria-Hungary and Germany had been formally allied since the Dual Alliance of 1879.
Why are Russia and China only pseudo-allied?
Their 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation commits them to consult if either sees a threat to peace. It does not commit either to defend the other. The Sino-Soviet treaty of 1950 did include a mutual defense clause, and it expired in 1980.
Why do Poland and the Baltics fear Russia?
The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of August 1939 had secret protocols dividing Eastern Europe between Germany and the Soviet Union. The Soviets invaded eastern Poland in September 1939 and annexed Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 1940. The Baltic states stayed in the Soviet Union until 1991. Poland joined NATO in 1999, and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joined in 2004.
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