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China won't let anyone hold its oil
The blockade worry
The longer the American blockade of Hormuz goes on, the more control over China's critical energy needs the United States could gain, and that worries China a great deal. China hasn't acted yet because its strategic oil reserves are very significant and will carry it through the short-term future.
What China concludes
Trying to control China by controlling its oil inputs forever is probably not on the books even for this American administration. But the longer the blockade goes on, the more people in China will conclude that the real aim is to prevent China from controlling its own energy future.
If reserves run low
If China starts to run low on oil, an attempt to force the strait open is absolutely possible, because a lack of oil would kill the Chinese economy and China will not allow that. Energy has also become a significant part of the relationship between Xi Jinping and Putin, since it gives Russia the chance to sell more of its energy to China over the longer term.
Why does so much oil pass through Hormuz?
The strait sits between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, so exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have to pass through it. According to the US Energy Information Administration, it is about 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Ship traffic is confined to lanes two miles wide in each direction. The agency has estimated that roughly a fifth of world oil consumption passed through it in the early 2020s.
How do strategic oil reserves work?
A strategic reserve is crude oil held in tanks or underground caverns by a government, so that it can be released when supply is cut. Members of the International Energy Agency are required to hold stocks equal to at least 90 days of their net imports. China does not publish full figures on its stockpiles. The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve stores its crude in salt caverns along the Gulf of Mexico coast.
How does Russian energy reach China?
Pipelines carry oil and gas across land and so cannot be cut off by a naval blockade. The Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean oil pipeline, with a spur into northern China, began supplying China in 2011. The Power of Siberia gas pipeline began deliveries in December 2019.
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