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Gas in the ground isn't the limit
What is left to drill
Mapping every company's acreage against well output data shows what is left to produce. Existing acreage can reach about 128 to 132 billion cubic feet a day of maximum deliverability, which is a flow measure, and no major new shale find is expected. Most of the known inventory of drilling locations gets used in the next four or five years, though, and a number of companies describe more locations than the facts support.
Processing and gathering
Getting the gas out is the harder part. Gas comes up mixed with liquids, sulfur, or nitrogen and has to be processed to meet a pipeline spec, and the processing needed for the extra 20 billion cubic feet a day isn't built yet. It takes two or three years to build. Small-diameter gathering lines carry gas from the wellhead to processing, and those have to be invested in heavily and soon.
Interstate pipelines
The last link is interstate pipelines, which are mostly monopolies and are hard to permit. In the last 10 to 12 years the country has built essentially one, the Mountain Valley Pipeline connecting Appalachia to the Mid-Atlantic. The current administration is trying to lower the barriers, and some progress has started.
Why does gas need processing before pipelines?
Gas from the wellhead often carries water, heavier hydrocarbons such as ethane and propane, and impurities such as hydrogen sulfide or nitrogen. Pipelines accept gas only within a quality specification, so processing plants strip these out. The separated liquids are sold on their own, which adds revenue for producers.
Why are interstate pipelines so hard to permit?
Interstate gas pipelines need approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, along with state water permits and environmental reviews. Landowner negotiations and court challenges can add years. Mountain Valley Pipeline, for example, was first proposed in 2014 and faced repeated legal challenges before entering service.
What is maximum deliverability?
Maximum deliverability is the highest rate at which a system can deliver gas at a given moment, measured in volume per day. It differs from the total volume of gas in the ground, which is a stock rather than a flow. A large resource can still deliver only a limited rate because wells, processing, and pipelines can each carry only so much.
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