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No surprise attack on Taiwan
Normandy's surprise
In 1944, about 150,000 Allied troops attacked and then defended their beachhead in Normandy, still the largest amphibious landing ever conducted. Without electronic surveillance, the Allies could deceive the Germans, whose central command knew an invasion was coming but not where. They couldn't reinforce Normandy ahead of the landing, so the Allies met relatively weak defenses in the first phase.
Why China can't hide
China doesn't have that luxury. A force with a realistic shot at toppling Taiwan would need around 400,000 to 500,000 personnel, and assembling and staging them and their equipment on the mainland is a month-long process almost impossible to hide. There's also no land route, so a Taiwan invasion has to be an amphibious assault, with no way to finish the job through paratroopers or air strikes alone.
Taiwan's head start
Once it starts, the 100 miles (160 kilometers) of water gives Taiwan an eight to 10 hour head start. Much of that time would go to a massive air campaign against as many Chinese ships as possible, while ground forces move to defend likely landing sites.
How did the Allies hide where they would land?
The Allies ran a deception campaign called Operation Fortitude. It invented an entire army, the First US Army Group, supposedly commanded by General George Patton and poised to cross at Pas-de-Calais, complete with inflatable tanks and staged radio traffic. Double agents fed German intelligence the same story. German forces kept the Fifteenth Army near Pas-de-Calais for weeks after the Normandy landings.
How can a buildup be seen from space?
Moving hundreds of thousands of troops needs ships, rail lines, fuel depots, and staging areas, and all of them show up in photographs taken from orbit. Commercial satellite companies sell this imagery, so it is not limited to governments. In late 2021 and early 2022, news outlets tracked the Russian buildup near Ukraine through commercial satellite photographs published over several weeks.
Why can't paratroopers take an island alone?
Troops dropped by parachute carry only light weapons, so they need heavy equipment and supplies delivered quickly once they land. In 1941, Germany took Crete with an airborne assault and suffered the heaviest losses its paratroopers ever took. Hitler afterward largely abandoned large airborne assaults. Air strikes can destroy defenses but cannot occupy ground.
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