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Taiwan is three flashpoints in one
Three flashpoints in one
It has the nationalist aspirations of the people in the Balkans. It has the territorial implications of Alsace-Lorraine, the region disputed between France and Germany. And it has the strategic implications of Belgium, the only place Germany shouldn't have invaded if it wanted to keep Britain out of the war.
Rising pressure on Taiwan
Chinese pressure on Taiwan has been rising for a long time. Some people in Beijing now think the reunification they want should happen in their own lifetimes, because things might not be better for them in the future. That reminds of the thinking found in Germany before 1914. The United States has been the de facto guarantor of Taiwan for a very long time, and the two sides have dealt with the issue only through very broad phrases, as at the last Xi-Trump summit.
The Shanghai plus idea
A way out exists for the time being. The American president would declare that the United States will under no circumstance support Taiwan independence, and China, probably a bit further down the road, would confirm that it will not use force against the island unless it declares independence. Some call this the Shanghai plus solution, echoing what Henry Kissinger and Zhou Enlai did in 1972. It doesn't look likely at the moment, though it is entirely possible on both the American and the Chinese side.
Why was Belgium so pivotal in 1914?
Britain, France, Prussia, and other powers had guaranteed Belgian neutrality in the Treaty of London of 1839. Germany's war plan required its armies to pass through Belgium to reach France. German troops crossed the border on 4 August 1914, and Britain declared war that same day. The German chancellor, Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg, dismissed the old treaty as a scrap of paper.
Why was Alsace-Lorraine disputed between France and Germany?
Germany annexed most of Alsace and part of Lorraine from France after winning the Franco-Prussian War in 1871. The territory held iron ore and a population that spoke both French and German dialects. French politicians kept the loss in public memory for decades, and recovering the region became a standing French aim. It returned to France under the Treaty of Versailles in 1919.
How did Kissinger and Zhou handle Taiwan in 1972?
Richard Nixon visited China in February 1972, and the two governments issued the Shanghai Communique on 28 February. In it, each side stated its own position on Taiwan rather than agreeing on one text. The United States acknowledged that Chinese on both sides of the strait maintain there is one China, and said it did not challenge that position. The deliberately loose wording let both governments sign.
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