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China didn't send Russia into Ukraine
The Chinese have been gently pushing for some time to find an end to the active war, meaning some kind of ceasefire. One Chinese leader at the provincial level explained how hard it was to tell the comrades why the Russian army, which China had such tremendous respect for, ended up in this situation in Ukraine.
The war is not very high on the Chinese agenda. China in many ways likes that American resources, and until recently European resources too, are tied up in the Ukrainian conflict rather than focused on China's own neighborhood. On balance, China would favor a ceasefire in Ukraine.
How has China framed its stance on Ukraine?
On 4 February 2022, China and Russia issued a joint statement at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics that described their friendship as having no limits. Russia invaded Ukraine about three weeks later, on 24 February. In February 2023, China published a twelve-point paper on the political settlement of the crisis that called for a ceasefire and dialogue. The paper stressed respect for the sovereignty of all countries.
How has the war changed Russia-China trade?
Trade between the two countries rose sharply after 2022. Chinese customs data put it at a record of about 240 billion dollars in 2023. Russia sold China oil, gas, and coal, while Chinese firms supplied machinery, vehicles, and electronics. Russia became one of China's largest suppliers of crude oil.
Why did the push on Kyiv fail?
Russia opened the invasion on 24 February 2022 with an airborne assault on Hostomel airport near Kyiv, which Ukrainian forces contested and held. A long Russian column stalled north of the capital, hampered by fuel and supply shortages. Russia announced a shift of focus to the Donbas at the end of March. Its forces had withdrawn from the Kyiv region by early April 2022.
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