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India won't drift toward China
The drift idea
The idea has circulated in the United States and in Britain that Trump's emphasis on trade advantages for India would push it toward China. It is not going to happen. Relations between the two are bad now.
Pakistan as the obstacle
A large part of the problem is Pakistan. India, especially under Modi but under any future prime minister imaginable, is set on being the predominant power in South Asia, and China backs its regional rival Pakistan, which makes that very difficult.
A live border conflict
China and India are also the only great powers with an ongoing border conflict between them. That conflict could easily end in a greater confrontation, as it already has in the past and as events showed very recently.
Why does China back Pakistan?
Both countries have had a rivalry with India since the early 1960s. China fought a border war with India in 1962, and Pakistan had fought India in 1947 and 1965. In 1963, China and Pakistan signed a boundary agreement covering their shared frontier in Kashmir, which India rejected. China has been a major supplier of weapons to Pakistan since then.
How did the 1962 India-China war begin?
In October 1962, Chinese forces attacked Indian positions in Ladakh and in the eastern Himalayas. The dispute centered on Aksai Chin in the west and on the area India calls Arunachal Pradesh in the east. China declared a ceasefire on 21 November and withdrew from most of the eastern territory it had taken. The Line of Actual Control, which still marks the de facto frontier, takes its name from a 1959 letter by Zhou Enlai.
How was the 2020 Galwan clash different?
In June 2020, Indian and Chinese troops fought in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh, and 20 Indian soldiers died. China later acknowledged four deaths on its own side. The fighting used clubs and stones, because border agreements from 1996 and 2005 bar firearms near the line. It was the first deadly clash on the frontier since 1975.
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