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Why China loves the Thucydides trap
The concept comes from Graham Allison, a Harvard professor. On its face, it doesn't look all that good for China. But it recognizes China as the rising great power and, by the same comparison, the United States as a great power in decline, and that gives China a great deal of face.
That is why Xi Jinping was so eager to bring it up and to stress the need to avoid it at his summit with Trump. The summit was staged to present China as the great power working toward stability and the resolution of issues, which in reality is not always true. Trump was presented as arriving without solutions or much of a strategy. Those images matter for the countries involved, and they matter further afield.
Where does the Thucydides trap come from?
Thucydides was an Athenian general and historian who wrote the history of the Peloponnesian War. He explained the war as a result of Athens's growing power and the fear this caused in Sparta. Graham Allison, a Harvard political scientist, adopted the idea as a label for rivalries between rising and ruling powers. In his 2017 book Destined for War, Allison examined 16 cases over the previous 500 years and counted 12 that ended in war.
How did the war between Athens and Sparta end?
The Peloponnesian War lasted from 431 to 404 BC. Sparta could not defeat the Athenian navy until it received money from Persia to build a fleet of its own. In 405 BC, the Spartan commander Lysander destroyed the Athenian fleet at Aegospotami. Athens surrendered the following year, and its walls were pulled down.
Which cases in Allison's tally avoided war?
Allison counted four of his 16 cases as ending without war. They include the rise of the United States past Britain around the start of the twentieth century, when Britain chose to accommodate the newcomer. They also include the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, which never became a direct war between them. Allison published the full list in his 2017 book.
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